Last season we saw an influx of young talented runners flash glimpses of Fantasy Football greatness. The 2015 running back class saw a lot of talent ranging from the 10th overall pick Todd Gurely all the way to undrafted stud Thomas Rawls and whole lot in between. In this 2nd Year Running Back series we'll be examining second year backs and their fantasy outlooks going into their sophomore campaigns. First thing that I think it's important to establish is tiers amongst the players in this class.
Tier 1: Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls. Obviously the three top rookie backs last year all who look to drafted in the top three rounds of redraft leagues. All of them look to put together very productive seasons next year. The real question is who will be the best and what's the appropriate draft value for them?
Tier 2: Melvin Gordon, T.J Yeldon, Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones. These young backs all are in position to make a hefty impact as the starter going into next season, but didn't quite show flashes of fantasy greatness in their rookie season.
Tier 3: Karlos Williams, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Spencer Ware and Javorius Allen. In this third tier are players who have shown they can make an impact but their role will most likely inhibit their full ceiling, however in the case if certain things happen, things could change.
Tier 4: Jay Ajayi, David Cobb, Cameron Artis-Payne. These are the wild card guys. They didn't show anything significant in their rookie campaigns. Maybe there's just genuine questions about their role going into the 2016 season. These are the guys who can breakout like Devonte Freeman or simply fade out and become a depth guy like Terrance West.
Obviously it's early March and a lot will change from today and opening kick off, but for now let's just take a quick early look at some sophomore running backs. In our first installment we'll take a look at our Tier 1 guys and see what's in store for their 2016-17 season.
Todd Gurley:
There's no denying it Todd Gurley was the best pure rookie runner throughout the season last year for the Rams. It only took a couple games to realize Gurley was the real deal and worthy of the tenth overall selection. His combination of speed, power and vision make an absolute delight to watch. His cuts across the field and hurdles over opponents make for a great highlight reel.
It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Gurley will be a fantasy stud next season under the bright lights of Los Angeles. The real question is what's his ceiling? Asides from Gurley, the Rams had no other consistent weapons and next season doesn't look to get any better. With questions at quarterback and a general lack of consistent talent on the offensive end, it's safe to say that Gurley will probably be ran into the ground. So we can expect to see a heavy workload of probably a minimum of 250 touches if he plays a full season. Last season Gurley showed all the potentials of being a true workhorse in the league. However we also saw that when you're the only weapon on a team, teams can easily lock in and stop you.
After his initial hot start we saw Gurley hit a bit of a rookie wall from weeks 11-13 where he was held to less than 70 total yards each game. During that stretch teams locked in on stopping Gurley. Often times in these games the Rams were playing from behind which also limited Gurley's rushing attempts. Another knack on Gurley is his lack of presence in the passing game out of the backfield. Last season in his 12 games started he only had 20 receptions for 183 yards. This isn't to say that Gurley won't improve, but often times when we discuss absolute top backs in fantasy football we think of the guys who can get about 40-50 receptions and 300-400 yards. If Gurley can add that to his game he's a surefire first round pick. Until then I see Gurley as late first to mid second round range.
Projected Round
Standard 12 Team League: Mid 1st - Mid 2nd
12 Team PPR League: Late First - Late 2nd
It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Gurley will be a fantasy stud next season under the bright lights of Los Angeles. The real question is what's his ceiling? Asides from Gurley, the Rams had no other consistent weapons and next season doesn't look to get any better. With questions at quarterback and a general lack of consistent talent on the offensive end, it's safe to say that Gurley will probably be ran into the ground. So we can expect to see a heavy workload of probably a minimum of 250 touches if he plays a full season. Last season Gurley showed all the potentials of being a true workhorse in the league. However we also saw that when you're the only weapon on a team, teams can easily lock in and stop you.
After his initial hot start we saw Gurley hit a bit of a rookie wall from weeks 11-13 where he was held to less than 70 total yards each game. During that stretch teams locked in on stopping Gurley. Often times in these games the Rams were playing from behind which also limited Gurley's rushing attempts. Another knack on Gurley is his lack of presence in the passing game out of the backfield. Last season in his 12 games started he only had 20 receptions for 183 yards. This isn't to say that Gurley won't improve, but often times when we discuss absolute top backs in fantasy football we think of the guys who can get about 40-50 receptions and 300-400 yards. If Gurley can add that to his game he's a surefire first round pick. Until then I see Gurley as late first to mid second round range.
Projected Round
Standard 12 Team League: Mid 1st - Mid 2nd
12 Team PPR League: Late First - Late 2nd
David Johnson was the late season waiver wire warrior of many fantasy football teams last year. His late season surge has propelled him into being a potential first or second round pick going into the 2016 fantasy season. But before all that Johnson was already showing his skills as an electrifying player through returns and in his rotational snap. After Chris Johnson's season ended, David Johnson got the opportunity to showcase his skills on the ground and through the air. The question with David Johnson going into next season is can he do it a full sixteen games as the lead back in Arizona. We've seen players like C.J. Anderson in 2014 have a late season breakout only to disappoint the following year. We've also seen players like Jeremy Hill who had stellar rookie season only to disappoint fantasy owners with an inconsistent sophomore campaign. But unlike the other two I believe Johnson won't disappoint.
Going into next season David Johnson will be returning to an elite Arizona Cardinals defense with talent all around (Palmer, Fitzgerald, Floyd, Brown, etc.). Defenses won't be able to just center in on the second year back. Another aspect of Johnson's game that many believe will translate over a successful sophomore season is his pass catching ability out of the backfield. Beginning his first week as the starter in Week 13, Johnson averaged 6.25 targets a game, 3.75 receptions and 48.75 receiving yards a game. In a modern pass happy NFL Johnson's ability to catch out of the backfield is hot commodity especially in PPR leagues. I wouldn't be surprised to see David Johnson slowly rising up fantasy draft boards week by week as we inch our way to August. By then David Johnson vs. Todd Gurley will have become one of the hottest debates this fantasy football preseason.
Draft Projections
Standard 12 Team League : Late First - Late Second
12 Team PPR League: Mid First - Mid Second
Draft Projections
Standard 12 Team League : Late First - Late Second
12 Team PPR League: Mid First - Mid Second
Thomas Rawls:
The undrafted back was putting up huge performances before his season ending ankle injury. His whopping 5.6 yards per carry were first amongst running backs with a minimum of a 100 carries. Rawls is an explosive runner who brings shades of a mini Beast Mode in his game. His explosiveness paired with a solid rush protection in Seattle made for some insane performances last season.
Rawls will be coming off a broken ankle so it'll be important to monitor that in the preseason, but given he's a young player he should come back at full strength. With Beast Mode gone in Seattle and no one else really stepping up while Rawls was gone, Rawls has all the opportunity to take over as the next franchise back of Seattle. However with Rawls, you have to wonder will his 5'9" frame hold up for the type of game he wants to play? If Rawls does hold up he could be the perfect running back to draft for teams intending to go receivers with their first two picks.
Projected Round
12 Team Standard League: Late Second - Early Fourth
12 Team PPR League: Early Third - Early Fourth
In the next post we'll take a look at our Tier 2 guys amongst our sophomore running backs. Thanks for reading and if you have any Fantasy Football questions feel free to submit a question here on our website or email us at footbrosfantasypod@gmail.com.
Projected Round
12 Team Standard League: Late Second - Early Fourth
12 Team PPR League: Early Third - Early Fourth
In the next post we'll take a look at our Tier 2 guys amongst our sophomore running backs. Thanks for reading and if you have any Fantasy Football questions feel free to submit a question here on our website or email us at footbrosfantasypod@gmail.com.
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