2nd Year Running Backs Preview Part One: The Big Three

Andrew Yang

Last season we saw an influx of young talented runners flash glimpses of Fantasy Football greatness. The 2015 running back class saw a lot of talent ranging from the 10th overall pick Todd Gurely all the way to undrafted stud Thomas Rawls and whole lot in between. In this 2nd Year Running Back series we'll be examining second year backs and their fantasy outlooks going into their sophomore campaigns. First thing that  I think it's important to establish is tiers amongst the players in this class.

Tier 1: Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls. Obviously the three top rookie backs last year all who look to drafted in the top three rounds of redraft leagues. All of them look to put together very productive seasons next year. The real question is who will be the best and what's the appropriate draft value for them?

Tier 2: Melvin Gordon, T.J Yeldon,  Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones. These young backs all are in position to make a hefty impact as the starter going into next season, but didn't quite show flashes of fantasy greatness in their rookie season.

Tier 3: Karlos Williams, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Spencer Ware and Javorius Allen. In this third tier are players who have shown they can make an impact but their role will most likely inhibit their full ceiling, however in the case if certain things happen, things could change.

Tier 4: Jay Ajayi, David Cobb, Cameron Artis-Payne. These are the wild card guys. They didn't show anything significant in their rookie campaigns. Maybe there's just genuine questions about their role going into the 2016 season. These are the guys who can breakout like Devonte Freeman or simply fade out and become a depth guy like Terrance West.

Obviously it's early March and a lot will change from today and opening kick off, but for now let's just take a quick early look at some sophomore running backs. In our first installment we'll take a look at our Tier 1 guys and see what's in store for their 2016-17 season.

Todd Gurley: 

There's no denying it Todd Gurley was the best pure rookie runner throughout the season last year for the Rams. It only took a couple games to realize Gurley was the real deal and worthy of the tenth overall selection. His combination of speed, power and vision make an absolute delight to watch. His cuts across the field and hurdles over opponents make for a great highlight reel.

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Gurley will be a fantasy stud next season under the bright lights of Los Angeles. The real question is what's his ceiling? Asides from Gurley, the Rams had no other consistent weapons and next season doesn't look to get any better. With questions at quarterback and a general lack of consistent talent on the offensive end, it's safe to say that Gurley will probably be ran into the ground. So we can expect to see a heavy workload of probably a minimum of 250 touches if he plays a full season.  Last season Gurley showed all the potentials of being a true workhorse in the league. However we also saw that when you're the only weapon on a team, teams can easily lock in and stop you.

After his initial hot start we saw Gurley hit a bit of a rookie wall from weeks 11-13 where he was held to less than 70 total yards each game. During that stretch teams locked in on stopping Gurley.  Often times in these games the Rams were playing from behind which also limited Gurley's rushing attempts. Another knack on Gurley is his lack of presence in the passing game out of the backfield. Last season in his 12 games started he only had 20 receptions for 183 yards. This isn't to say that Gurley won't improve, but often times when we discuss absolute top backs in fantasy football we think of the guys who can get about 40-50 receptions and 300-400 yards. If Gurley can add that to his game he's a surefire first round pick. Until then I see Gurley as late first to mid second round range.

Projected Round
Standard 12 Team League: Mid 1st - Mid 2nd
12 Team PPR League: Late First - Late 2nd 

David Johnson: 

David Johnson was the late season waiver wire warrior of many fantasy football teams last year. His late season surge has propelled him into being a potential first or second round pick going into the 2016 fantasy season. But before all that Johnson was already showing his skills as an electrifying player through returns and in his rotational snap. After Chris Johnson's season ended, David Johnson got the opportunity to showcase his skills on the ground and through the air. The question with David Johnson going into next season is can he do it a full sixteen games as the lead back in Arizona. We've seen players like C.J. Anderson in 2014 have a late season breakout only to disappoint the following year. We've also seen players like Jeremy Hill who had stellar rookie season only to disappoint fantasy owners with an inconsistent sophomore campaign. But unlike the other two I believe Johnson won't disappoint.

Going into next season David Johnson will be returning to an elite Arizona Cardinals defense with talent all around (Palmer, Fitzgerald, Floyd, Brown, etc.). Defenses won't be able to just center in on the second year back. Another aspect of Johnson's game that many believe will translate over a successful sophomore season is his pass catching ability out of the backfield. Beginning his first week as the starter in Week 13, Johnson averaged 6.25 targets a game, 3.75 receptions and 48.75 receiving yards a game. In a modern pass happy NFL Johnson's ability to catch out of the backfield is hot commodity especially in PPR leagues. I wouldn't be surprised to see David Johnson slowly rising up fantasy draft boards week by week as we inch our way to August. By then David Johnson vs. Todd Gurley will have become one of the hottest debates this fantasy football preseason.

Draft Projections
Standard 12 Team League : Late First - Late Second
12 Team PPR League: Mid First - Mid Second 

Thomas Rawls: 

The undrafted back was putting up huge performances before his season ending ankle injury. His whopping 5.6 yards per carry were first amongst running backs with a minimum of a 100 carries. Rawls is an explosive runner who brings shades of a mini Beast Mode in his game. His explosiveness paired with a solid rush protection in Seattle made for some insane performances last season.

Rawls will be coming off a broken ankle so it'll be important to monitor that in the preseason, but given he's a young player he should come back at full strength. With Beast Mode gone in Seattle and no one else really stepping up while Rawls was gone, Rawls has all the opportunity to take over as the next franchise back of Seattle. However with Rawls, you have to wonder will his 5'9" frame hold up for the type of game he wants to play? If Rawls does hold up he could be the perfect running back to draft for teams intending to go receivers with their first two picks.

Projected Round
12 Team Standard League: Late Second - Early Fourth
12 Team PPR League: Early Third - Early Fourth

In the next post we'll take a look at our Tier 2 guys amongst our sophomore running backs. Thanks for reading and if you have any Fantasy Football questions feel free to submit a question here on our website or email us at footbrosfantasypod@gmail.com. 

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Start Them & Sit Them Week 13

It's the final week in the regular season for a lot of leagues out there and we've got a start them and sit them column for you guys. Just a preface to this, remember always start your normal studs.

So here we go, here's a few guys who you may have been on the fence about starting and sitting.

Quarterbacks:

Starts

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Coming off a 4 touchdown performance Fitzpatrick is going up against a New York Giants defense which gives up the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. With Brandon Marshall playing like a top five receiver right now Fitzpatrick is a must start in Week 13.

Ryan Tannehill: Another Ryan worth starting this week is Ryan Tannehill. He's had an up and down season and hasn't been the breakout candidate a lot of analysts thought he would be. Last week he was 33/58 for 3 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. It wasn't a great day for the Dolphins, but for Tannehill owners he got you 31 points in standard leagues. He's facing the Baltimore Ravens who have given up the fifth most fantasy production to quarterbacks this season. Tannehill should be able to have a great fantasy day off sheer volume alone.

Jay Cutler: Jay Cutler looked cool, calm and in full control last week in the upset victory over the Packers on Thursday night. He was 19/31 for 200 and 1 TD last week. The key stat being 0 interceptions. Cutler has been making better decisions this season which has led to a season with a lot fewer turnovers, only throwing 6 interceptions this season. Cutler and the Bears are going up against a San Francisco defense that's given up the 7th most points to fantasy quarterbacks this season. With Alshon Jeffery looking to be fully healthy Cutler should be a solid start in week 13.

Sits

Philip Rivers: I know he just threw four touchdowns, but hear me out. One, it was against a Jacksonville defense that hasn't been able to stop much this season. Two, Rivers is going against a much tougher match up with the Denver Broncos coming to town. Denver has given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Although the rag tag group of receiving corp of Antonio Gates, Stevie Johnson and Dontrelle Inman found success against the Jaguars, it's hard to see them produce that level of production against the top secondary in football.

Drew Brees: Brees just cannot find success outside of the Superdome and with the Carolina Panthers coming to town it looks like he won't be finding success in the Superdome either. Brees missed the Saints' first matchup with the current undefeated Panthers in week 3. The Panthers have been dominant the last two weeks. In the last two weeks they've averaged 3.5 sacks and 2 interceptions. With Brees's inconsistent play this season, I'd avoid him this week.

Running Back:

Doug Martin: The Muscle Hamster had put 97 yards on just 14 carries last week, granted a majority of those yards came off a 56 yard run in the third. Martin also a TD run called back which would've made his fantasy day spectacular, but that's enough of dwelling on the past. A loss last week put set Tampa Back a bit in their playoff push, but a win against the Falcons could put them right back into playoff consideration. If Tampa wants any shot of making the playoffs they need to rely on Martin going into week 13. Atlanta has given up the most points to running backs this season. In their first meeting Martin only managed 71 yards on 23 carries, but this time at home it should be different and Martin is a must start in week 13. 

Javorius Allen: The rookie running back from USC didn't get as many touches as we expected in his starting debut but he still made an impact totaling 84 yards with a touchdown catch. Allen has a good chance to replicate that same production as he faces a weak run defense in the Miami Dolphins in week 13. If the Ravens are going to win this game it certainly won't be through Matt Schaub but through the young  Buck Allen.

CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman: Both of the Broncos backfield can be looked to for some solid flex contributions at the minimum. They're facing a San Diego D that's given the 3rd most points to running backs this season. Hillman will be getting the start, but we've seen in this Broncos timeshare both guys get enough touches to make an impact. With Osweiler at the helm, the Broncos run game looks to continue to flourish and both backs could find the end zone this week.

Sits

DeMarco Murray: It's been a rough season for Murray and the Eagles and it only looks to be getting rougher as they face a motivated New England team that just got handed their first loss of the season. This game has all the looks of a possible blowout and we saw last week Murray wasn't efficient at all and couldn't even manage garbage time number. Murray has managed only one 100 yard rushing day all season and another one doesn't look  to be happening in the near future going against New England who's given up the 9th fewest fantasy points against running backs.

Latavius Murray: Another Murray to sit this week. Latavius has also struggled all season and things don't  look to be changing facing a fierce Kansas City run defense. I'll keep it simple. Sit Latavius.

Wide Receivers:

Starts

T.Y. Hilton: Hilton did it. Last week he showed that he's capable of putting up big games with Matt Hasselbeck as his quarterback. One thing owners has always loved about Hilton was his big play potential. He's a guy who can easily redeem his fantasy day with one play. What I really liked seeing was his 12 targets. Hilton's facing the Pittsburgh secondary that's been leaky all season, with Doug Baldwin and friends lighting them up last week. With Indy's run game struggling they'll be looking for T.Y. and his buddies for success. I'm staying at the Hilton this weekend.

Danny Amendola: Amendola missed last week with a knee injury, but the last two games he played Brady looked his way a lot. With Edelman out Amendola has stepped up in that possession type role that the Patriots heavily desire. Coming off their first loss of the season Tom Brady and the Patriots will look to take out their anger on someone and it looks to be the Eagles this week. With Gronk also out Amendola looks to be only prime weapon for Brady to use which makes him a must start this week.

Amari Cooper & Michael Crabtree: Both the Oakland Raiders wide receivers could be due for big games against a leaky Chiefs secondary that just let Sammy Watkins run all over them. With Justin Houston out for the Chiefs that pass rush becomes a lot less scary for Derek Carr. Oakland's offensive line has protected Carr all season and he's been the least sacked quarterback this season. Given protection and time Carr is going to find his two best weapons on offense and makes them both solid WR 2 at the minimum.


Sit:

Mike Evans: Evans is facing a tough match up against the Falcons who have given up the fewest points to opposing wide receivers this season. Evans was contained in his first meeting with the Falcons and week 13 looks to be the same, I would avoid Evans if possible.

Sammy Watkins: Watkins just came off a huge day against the Chiefs weak secondary, but could have a tough outing against the Texans. The Texans D has been playing lights out the past four weeks since their game against the Titans. That pass rush can fluster a quarterback (just ask Drew Brees last week) and that'll take its toll on young Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor. With Taylor struggling to get Watkins the ball, it'll be hard for him to have a good game.


Tight End

Starts:

Kyle Rudolph: I'll let you in on a little known secret, Seattle hasn't defended the tight end all too well this season. Seattle has allowed the 4th most points to tight ends this season. Kyle Rudolph has been around for a while, a perennial 1/1/1 stat-line candidate. But over the last two weeks he's grown to be one of Bridgewater's favorite targets. He's gotten 9 and 10 targets the last two weeks respectively. Rudolph could be a sneaky start this week at tight end only being owned in 53% of leagues.

Cameron Brate: Atlanta gives up the 8th most points to the tight end position. Cameron Brate is a tight end on a touchdown streak. Whenever the Bucs get into the red zone, Winston looks for him. Brate is my top contender for the 1/20/1 stat-line this week.

Julius Thomas: With Allen Hurns out more targets should be going Thomas' way. Julius Thomas had his best week as a Jaguar last week and the momentum looks to continue as the Jags face the Titans again.



Those are our starts and sits of week 13. If you have any questions about your line up feel free to leave a message on the blog or email us at footbrosfantasypod@gmail.com. You could also tweet us your question @footbrosff.  You can also listen to us talk about fantasy football every Tuesday and Thursday on our Footbros Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for reading and good luck this week!

- Andrew Yang

Players we should be thankful for

Every year there are a set of draft busts and draft steals. This year is no different. It is nearly impossible to win a championship with the same players that you drafted, due to the unpredictability of who will be a stud, and who will be a dud, as it should be. Fantasy Football wouldn't be hard if everything was predictable and went as planned. The waiver wire should be active, and players should rise into relevancy. So on this Thanksgiving, lets take a look at players that we may have been fortunate enough to have on our team this season.

Adrian Peterson

Some of you may have picked him up in the first round, so you are already getting exactly what you expected when you drafted him. But if you put it in hindsight, he was one of the best draft choicecs you could have had. In a year littered with injuries (Leveon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles) and busts (Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, CJ Anderson). Adrian Peterson is the one first round running back that has really came through and been productive and healthy amassing 1,006 rushing yards with 6 touchdowns. 

Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman is the player most of us did not draft, but wish we did. Coming in as a low round draft pick, no one really expected much from Freeman other than being a bench substitution for a player on bye. But boy were we surprised. Devonta Freeman is the biggest draft steal of this year. Freeman is currently the highest scoring running back in fantasy. Ever since week three when he took over the starting job from an injured Tevin Coleman, Freeman ran away with the job as hard as possible and never looked back. On the season he has amassed 1,184 total yards with 11 total touchdowns. The only reason to not be thankful for Devonta Freeman is if you traded or dropped him early on, and he has burned you ever since.

Deandre Hopkins

Deandre Hopkins was drafted in the fourth round in many leagues as a flyer that may or may not help owners throughout the season. Having become the lead wide-out this off season after the trade of Andre Johnson to the Colts, everyone was eyeing Deandre Hopkins to be a decent wide receiver two for their team. Deandre Hopkins has leaped over that expectation and caught Touchdown after Touchdown for weeks on end. Hopkins has shown that he is a match up proof roster lock and has solidified his name into the conversation for best wide receiver in the league with 1,045 yards and 9 touchdowns. Hold on to him, and never let him go. He will take you places.

Tyler Eifert

If Devonta Freeman was the biggest draft steal, than Tyler Eifert was a close second. In a lot of leagues, Tyler Eifert went untouched in the draft. Now, after his first season of full health, he has proven that he is a red zone monster that will be noticed. Eifert leads the league in touchdowns with 12, and has scored the second most fantasy points for tight ends, right behind Rob Gronkowski. Some weeks he could have been the sole reason you won with his three touchdown performances. Eifert won't come cheap in the draft next year, but for now, be thankful you have him on your side this year.

Andy Dalton

Many fantasy owners cast Andy Dalton out this year. In fact, in many leagues he wasn't drafted until the late rounds, if at all. But this season, through an arsenal of weapons and sharper quarterback play, Andy Dalton has aided many Fantasy Footballers this season.As the sixth best fantasy quarterback this season (only three points behind Aaron Rodgers), Dalton has thrown for 2,738 yards with 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Dalton has resurrected his career, ignited the Bengals, and carried our teams. We should be thankful.

Tom Brady

No list of fantasy football players we are thankful for could be complete without including the highest scoring player in fantasy football this year. Tom Brady was drafted late mostly because of that four game suspension that many feared was looming. Tom Brady ended up missing no games, and has left a flame trail throughout the whole NFL of teams that he has pummeled in his path of revenge. Whether his play is truly revenge or just an all time great quarterback blowing off father time, we should all be thankful and bask in the glory of the season that Tom Brady has given to the Patriots, and most importantly...our fantasy teams.

So that's who we are grateful for, but we would love to hear about who you are grateful for and who has really helped make your season great this year, so please message us on Facebook, Twitter, or the comment section on this site. you could always email us your comments or questions as well at footbrosfantasypod@gmail.com. And as always, good luck on your match ups this week, and be sure to catch our show every Tuesdays and Thursdays. 

  

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